By Emmanuel Kupoluyi
I read the falsehood authored by Afeez Igbalaye, a Senator Ajibola Basiru (SRJ) for Governor campaigner, stating that APC defeated PDP in Irewole Local Government Area with a “razor thin margin of just 2500” in the 2022 guber poll. Igbalaye made puerile attempt to create an impression that handing the APC governorship ticket to an indigene of Irewole would not translate to votes for APC because of the over-bearing presence of Senator Lere Oyewumi, deputy minority leader of the senate, who is a native of the town. This was the writer’s reaction to a trending publication evaluating the woeful impact of Senator Ajibola in the last governorship election.
Igbalaye’s argument that the influence of Akogun Oyewumi would reduce the chances of APC in Irewole in 2026 falls flat on its face: was SRJ not a principal officer of the Senate in 2022 when APC lost in his ward, in his local government and in his federal constituency? Was he not a principal officer when he lost his Senate seat to a political wannabe? Why didn’t his “principal status” in the Senate save him of the electoral shellacking?
During the 2022 poll, Ajibola was Osun Central senator in the National Assembly as well as the Director General of re-election bid of ex-Governor Adegboyega Oyetola. Despite the touted influence of the senator in Osogbo, his hometown, APC lost scandalously. Of the 15 wards in the local government, APC lost in 14. The party also lost heavily in Olorunda local government and two other LGs in SRJ’s federal constituency. This embarrassing defeat, of about 20,000 losing margin, is what Ajibola’s spin doctors have been struggling to decorate in Abuja to those he thinks could foist him on Osun APC, regardless of the opinion of the major stakeholders in the state.
Before proceeding, let me address the lie told about the election results in Irewole/Isokan and Ayeedaade federal constituency in 2022. In Irewole, APC polled 18,198 votes to defeat the PDP with a margin of 3982, and not 2500 as being claimed by the SRJ team. Save for Boripe and Ife Central, no other LGs had better lead margin than Irewole in that governorship contest. In Isokan and Ayeedaade, APC also defeated PDP. This feat is what Igbalaye and his ilk are fighting to discredit to enliven the bumbling ambition of their principal.
To promoters of Ajibola, only a candidate from Osogbo can defeat the incumbent governor. Their confidence is rooted in the numerical strength of the ancient town, as if that alone would translate to votes. On the basis of that argument, it beats logic that SRJ suffered a heavy blow in the hands of an Ila-born Fadeyi Ajagunla in the 2023 senatorial contest involving the two of them. Osogbo has more population than Ila-Orangun. The fact is that SRJ’s think-tank are not patient to interrogate the historical and political events which vitiate their population theory. Esa-Oke, Chief Bola Ige’s hometown, was barely 20,000 in population in 1979 when Ige of UPN defeated an Ibadan aristocrat, Chief Richard Akinjide who flew the flag of NPN. Population of Ibadan at the time was over a million people. It is important to add that the National Chairman of NPN, Chief Adisa Akinloye, was also from Ibadan. Similarly in 1999, Chief Bisi Akande of Alliance for Democracy (AD), who is from Ila-Orangun, defeated Senator Olu Alabi of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), an indigene of Osogbo, to become the first civilian governor of the state in the fourth republic. So what is the argument of Basiru Ajibola and his men?
Personality, more than Population, plays a major role in politics in Yorubaland. The electorate would rather vote for an Omoluabi candidate from a minority town than a proud politician from a major bloc. This is the undoing of Senator Ajibola Basiru SRJ which he is seeking to conceal. Many believe the senator is arrogant and bossy, and therefore can not be a listening governor. Those who worked in the 2022 governorship campaign with him insist his lordly and I-know-it-all attitude was partly responsible for the disappointment experienced by the party in the election.
It was argued elsewhere that a candidate perceived to be arrogant, too distant from the grassroots, would find it difficult to generate votes for his party. A reference was made to how APC votes in Osogbo plunged from 39,983 in 2014 to 22,952 in 2022 when a son of the soil was the Director General of APC campaign. It was proposed, therefore, that a candidate with strong and appealing personality should be prioritized. Meanwhile political development of recent days points to the fact that stakeholders in APC do not want to gamble with the choice of candidate for the party, especially with a choice hated and resented by the leaders of thoughts and traditional ruler of his hometown.
From length and breadth of Osogbo, the party leaders believe that the state capital punished the party because of the disapproving personality the party made to lead its campaign in 2022. And that his selection as governorship candidate in 2026 would hurt the chances of the party at the poll.
Having traced the electoral misfortune of APC in Osogbo and environs to SRJ, the APC stakeholders have resolved to salvage the situation by supporting an aspirant with competence and character. The leaders in Olorunda local government ( part of Osogbo) have already endorsed a candidate from Osun West and their counterparts from Osogbo local government are ready to follow suit. These are grassroots politicians who know that “charity begins at home and should not end there.”
| Kupoluyi wrote in from Osun