Billionaire investor Femi Otedola has projected that the naira could strengthen to below N1,000 to the dollar before the end of the year, attributing the optimism to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reaching full operational capacity.
In a post on X on Thursday, Otedola described the refinery’s achievement as a major turning point for Nigeria’s foreign exchange outlook, saying it would significantly ease pressure on the FX market.
He congratulated Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, describing the milestone as transformational for Nigeria and the wider African continent.
According to Otedola, the refinery’s ability to supply up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) daily would drastically cut Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel.
“With domestic refining now firmly underway after decades of reliance on imports, pressure on the foreign exchange market should ease significantly,” he wrote. “I am optimistic that the naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below N1,000/$1 before year end is increasingly within reach.”
Beyond the current achievement, Otedola disclosed that Dangote has commenced an additional $12 billion expansion project to increase refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day. The expansion will also include the production of 2.4 million tonnes of polypropylene and 400,000 metric tonnes of Linear Alkyl Benzene, a key raw material used in detergent manufacturing.
He noted that increased local production of these inputs would further reduce import dependence in Nigeria’s manufacturing sector and lower demand for foreign exchange.
“Aliko is not stopping here,” Otedola said, adding that work on the expansion is already underway.
Nigeria has historically spent billions of dollars annually importing refined petroleum products due to limited domestic refining capacity, a situation that has placed sustained pressure on the foreign exchange market. Fuel imports have remained one of the largest drivers of dollar demand and exchange rate volatility.
Analysts have long maintained that large-scale domestic refining could help conserve foreign reserves by cutting the need for dollar-denominated fuel imports, a view echoed by Otedola in linking the refinery’s ramp-up to potential FX market relief.
The Dangote Refinery, located in the Lekki Free Zone, Lagos, is designed to process 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day, making it the largest single-train refinery in the world. At full output, it is expected to meet Nigeria’s domestic demand for petrol, diesel and aviation fuel, with surplus available for export.
The refinery announced on Wednesday, February 11, 2026, that it had achieved full nameplate capacity following the optimisation of its Crude Distillation Unit and Motor Spirit production block. It also disclosed that it has commenced an intensive 72-hour performance test run in collaboration with its technology licensor, UOP, to validate operational efficiency and confirm compliance with global standards.