The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has revised its inflation projection for Nigeria, forecasting a further decline to 14 percent by December 2025, down from its earlier estimate of 17 percent.

The policy think tank said its updated outlook follows the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report showing that headline inflation had already fallen to 18.02 percent, continuing a six-month downward trend.

In a policy statement signed by its Chairman, Dr. Omoniyi Akinsiju, IMPI noted that the sustained fall in inflation would have a direct impact on reducing poverty levels across the country.

“High inflation erodes purchasing power and pushes more people into poverty,” the statement read. “When Nigeria’s inflation peaked at 34.8 percent in December 2024, the World Bank estimated that about 139 million Nigerians were living in poverty. However, with inflation easing over the past six months, we can safely assert that more Nigerians have been cycled out of poverty.”

The think tank attributed the steady disinflation to government policies aimed at stabilising the economy and lowering the cost of living, despite ongoing labour disputes.

“With new data available, we are confident that headline inflation will moderate to 14 percent by December 2025,” IMPI said. “We continue to observe a strong determination by the federal administration to sustain a low-cost economic environment.”

IMPI also projected that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) may cut the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by at least 150 basis points at its next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting to stimulate growth.

“In our last Policy Statement, we projected a total of 200 basis points reduction in the MPR to 25.50 percent,” it said. “We still expect that the CBN will have compelling reasons to reduce the rate further by another 150 basis points.”

The group reaffirmed its commitment to providing independent economic analysis to guide public policy and promote fiscal stability in Nigeria.