The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has projected that Nigeria’s economy will record stronger growth in 2026 and beyond, attributing the outlook to the new economic model being implemented by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
In a policy statement signed by its Chairman, Dr. Omoniyi Akinsiju, the policy group said the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could grow by as much as 5.5 per cent in 2026, exceeding projections by major global institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
According to IMPI, the Tinubu administration has introduced a paradigm shift in Nigeria’s economic management, moving away from heavy dependence on crude oil revenues towards a policy-driven economic facilitation framework.
The group explained that the model relies on the deliberate use of government policies, regulations and institutional frameworks to remove bottlenecks, lower transaction costs and accelerate economic activities, particularly in trade and investment.
IMPI noted that the approach is designed to promote sustainable and inclusive growth by improving efficiency, reducing red tape and creating a more supportive environment for businesses.
The policy think tank also pointed to a recent upward revision in Nigeria’s growth outlook by the IMF as evidence of growing confidence in the country’s economic direction. It recalled that seven months after making what it described as a “questionable” projection, the IMF revised its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2026 to 4.4 per cent.
IMPI described the revised IMF projection as the highest growth estimate issued by the Fund for Nigeria in the past 17 years, saying it reflects renewed confidence in the country’s economic prospects.
Beyond the IMF’s outlook, the group said there is a growing consensus among domestic and international analysts that Nigeria’s economy will achieve growth above 4 per cent in 2026.
It noted that while the Federal Government has projected a 4.68 per cent growth rate for 2026, the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) forecasts a higher 7 per cent growth, which is 1.5 per cent above the 5.5 per cent projection by the Nigeria Economic Summit Group.
IMPI added that PwC projected a 4.3 per cent growth rate, subject to higher global oil prices, while the World Bank revised its earlier estimate of 3.7 per cent to 4.4 per cent.
According to the think tank, the convergence of positive growth forecasts from both local and international institutions signals the emergence of a new economic paradigm in Nigeria.
It said the outlook is anchored on rising production and productivity, improved foreign exchange stability, moderating inflation, increased foreign direct investment inflows and a more streamlined regulatory environment driven by policy-led economic facilitation.
IMPI concluded that if the current reform trajectory is sustained, Nigeria is well-positioned to achieve higher and more resilient economic growth in the coming years.