President Bola Tinubu may secure re-election in 2027 despite widespread dissatisfaction with his administration, according to The Economist.
In a report published on October 1, Nigeria’s Independence Day, the British publication examined the president’s prospects ahead of the 2027 election, pointing to Nigeria’s complex electoral dynamics, a fragmented opposition, religious and regional identities, voter apathy and the advantages enjoyed by incumbents.
“On the face of it, Mr Tinubu’s cool is surprising,” The Economist wrote, noting that the worsening security situation and the effects of the government’s economic reforms could ordinarily weigh against his re-election.
However, the publication argued that electoral realities could work in Tinubu’s favour.
Opposition Fragmentation
The Economist identified the failure of opposition figures Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi to unite behind a single presidential ticket as a major factor.
The two politicians are running under separate platforms, with Atiku associated with the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Obi with the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).
According to the publication, their failure to form a joint ticket could prevent opposition votes from being consolidated behind one candidate.
Quoting Joachim MacEbong of Control Risks, The Economist said: “Because it’s not a united ticket, that anti-APC vote is not coalesced into a single vote.”
The publication also noted that incumbents in Nigeria have historically benefited from access to ruling-party structures and substantial resources during elections.
Religion and Political Cynicism
Religion could also influence voting patterns, particularly in northern Nigeria, according to The Economist.
It noted that Tinubu and Vice-President Kashim Shettima, both Muslims, could benefit from religious affinity in a region with a large share of Nigeria’s electorate.
The publication also suggested that Obi’s Catholic faith could influence some voters, despite his choice of a Muslim running mate.
“Even voters who like Mr. Obi may rule him out because he is a Catholic; the fact that he has a Muslim running mate may not be enough,” it stated.
Beyond religion, The Economist identified political cynicism as potentially one of the most significant factors shaping voter behaviour.
It quoted MacEbong as saying that some voters, particularly in northern communities, have become accustomed to poor public services.
“Many people are living where there has been no real security, no real health care, no real schools. Over time, people’s expectations get lower and lower,” he said.
The publication cited the example of a woman in Maiduguri who said she planned to vote for Tinubu as a “thank you” for medicine she received at a government hospital.
Security, Economy and Turnout
The Economist said Tinubu could still face significant voter dissatisfaction if insecurity persists and economic growth fails to translate into tangible improvements in people’s daily lives.
It noted that Nigeria’s economic growth is expected to reach about 4.1 per cent this year, but added that growth alone may not be enough to change voters’ experiences.
The publication also linked the president’s prospects to voter turnout, particularly in communities affected by insecurity.
“As long as the security crisis remains unresolved and economic growth, which is expected to hit 4.1% this year, does not translate into concrete improvements in Nigerians’ daily lives, many voters will remain disappointed. Yet few will use the ballot box to express their disappointment,” it reported.
‘Son of the Soil’ Factor
Identity politics could also benefit Tinubu in parts of southern Nigeria, particularly Lagos, according to The Economist.
The publication suggested that some voters could set aside dissatisfaction with their economic circumstances and support Tinubu because of his Lagos roots.
It wrote that “plenty may swallow whatever bad feelings they have about their day-to-day struggles and vote for their ‘son’.”
Against this backdrop, The Economist concluded that Tinubu’s apparent confidence ahead of 2027 may have less to do with broad satisfaction with his government and more to do with the country’s electoral structure, opposition fragmentation, identity politics, turnout patterns and the advantages of incumbency.
“No wonder Mr Tinubu feels safe enough to take extended holidays in Paris,” the publication concluded.